Since this is my first post, I figure this is a good time for you to know a little bit about what I mean by doom, when I call this ‘The Doom Letter.’

The Doom, as I see it:

1. By January 2018 (roughly 10 years from now), a majority of the global population will not be able to afford their current lifestyle. The primary driver of this change is the rising price of oil which I believe is an early indicator of peak oil.

2. Regardless of how much work is put into finding other energy sources to maintain the global economy (outside of oil as the primary fuel for growth), there will be a transitional period of time in which the global standard of living will be drastically reduced.

3. Though US citizens will be in better shape than some of the rest of the world, the decisions made by American leaders since World War II will cripple the American economy. What I mean by this is American wealth expanded during the post war period (through the 1970’s) to become the centerpiece of post war economic development – utilizing the only resource-rich developed economy left in the world . This model solidified a middle class of well-paid manufacturing employees as the base of this economy. A service sector developed, along with physical, social and economic infrastructure, and thereby spread the wealth to more portions of the population. This manufacturing base largely no longer exists, and the wealthy middle-class created as a result is now drying up.

4. The global disparity between rich and poor countries will become exacerbated as the global economic model of perpetual growth is challenged. As in the past, this will likely lead to confederations among resource rich but economically poor countries.

The solutions in my opinion will be technologically advanced and local. I do not see how there could be a global solution to this problem – I will also not devote a lot of time to ‘debunking’ or cheerleading for different ideas. Different regions will be required to draw on what they have locally to solve their unique problems.

Obviously, I do not see climate change as the issue that will break the world as we know it. Actually, I think that it might be taking valuable attention away from the more immediate threat to society – energy issues.

Doom is incremental. It is not dramatic, and it does not want your attention. I think it is because of this that it will be the end of the world as we know it, and, by the way, I feel fine about it.

Sincerely,
Mike Mayberry
The Doom Letter

doom@thedoomletter.com

Share on Facebook