The only real player left in the economy is the US government. Rich people have dumped their equity and commodity positions and followed the herd move into US treasuries. They are doing this and will continue to do so for a while because that way the government can take all of the losses while all of the zombie corporations sort themselves out.

I had thought there would be a rebound rally in the first half of the year, but now I doubt it. I think that the real economic news is just going to be too bad and equities will probably stay anchored to something like their current levels through the first half of the year. Maybe 2009 will turn out to be a total non-event for investment indicators. I still think we are screwed, but it seems like the transparency of the screwing we are going to take this year won’t be so clear.

I tried to post the following text as a reply to “Who’s going to pay the national debt?”, but the site wouldn’t let me comment yet. It is a good post that does a decent job of explaining the national debt from a republican perspective:

The original post points the finger at democrats when republicans are just as bad about deficit spending (last 8 years are an excellent example).

I also don’t necessarily believe that the trust funds are worthless yet. If the economy can recover, I think the most likely scenario will be that they sell public bonds to replace the GAS holdings in the trust funds as payroll receipts come due. What I wish they would do is stop paying interest on the the trust funds. Last year $212 billion was “spent” on interest payments on GAS. That is stupid (and yet another Greenspan creation).

A lot of this problem can be traced back to the Greenspan commission in the early 80’s. Their trick was to raise the payroll taxes to unnecessarily high levels in order to cut other taxes without increasing the public debt. It was a bookkeeping loophole that screwed working people some and small businesses a ton (because if you are independent, you have to pay both shares on your income).

My guess is a lot of this isn’t going to matter anyway. The Obama Administration will continue the Bush Administration policies (run huge deficits, continue to dump money into zombie companies) and crash the dollar in the process in order to paper over 20+ years of Greenspan debacles. On the other side, the debt will irrelevant because our economy will be in shambles.

O receives 2 week notice to change

Since I am currently unemployed and dependent on my girlfriend who has 1 week of seniority, I hope this is wrong. However, it is deeply disconcerting to think about things this way. Ilargi has my daily attention.

Mexican Oil output at 60 year low

You may be thinking, “thank goodness I’m not Mexican” but this will have a huge impact on the US too. If production continues to decline (and the price collapse won’t help inject funds) Mexico’s problems will become America’s problems as well since we share a porous border, they send us a lot of oil and the legitimacy of their government is underwritten by their national oil company. To paraphrase KRS-One, Mexico, now your FUCKED.

US financial losses may reach $3.6 trillion

Once the numbers get that big, there is no keeping the system going. Because the numbers are that big, the system is going to change dramatically. Of course, Washington will be there to protect the interests of the vested elite. O or W, doesn’t matter. Meet the new boss, same as the old…

Living Lightly

First, let me say that I could care less about my carbon footprint. I care about two things when it comes to stuff like this.

1. Where do my energy and water come from?

2. How much do they cost?

On this basis alone, I think things like composting toilets, air-drying your clothes and increasing your energy efficiency make sense. Plus, it is weird and fun, so that makes it good too.

Escape from Suburbia

The title is certainly catchy, but I will have to wait until I see it before giving it a thumbs up or down. It is on Netflix for streaming though, so I will watch it soon!

Secessionism and peak oil

We live in an age that encompasses a colossal contradiction. On the one hand, there is the corporatist and technocratic thrust for globalization and a professed New World Order. On the other hand, there is the interrelated dynamic of empire collapse. Both tendencies stem from a diminishing supply of and access to cheap energy resources as evidenced by the imminent arrival of Peak Oil.

Peak oil activist and the coming culture change

The unpleasant truth of US society’s waste and excess has been widely known since the 1960s, when the “Sixties Movement” meant lifestyle change more than mere politicking. Awareness of stifling consumerism and materialism spurred a rejection of “plastic society” as articulated by popular avant-garde artists. This era of awareness peaked around 1970. Energy and environment were not hot topics compared to the US war on the Indochinese. But some of us made note of the fact that the bombers and naval ships were all running on lots of oil. This was not considered a “news” item, when other issues and passions raged.

Forget Peak Oil

The logic of the person interviewed goes that peak oil doesn’t matter because OECD (rich, mostly white countries) demand has probably peaked and global warming regulations will further decrease demand. Then, the reporter interviews an oil exec that says OECD demand doesn’t matter because the Global South was leading the spike in demand prior to the credit collapse. This leads me to the question, what the fuck is the first guy talking about?

The solution to our financial crisis

This post (complete with 3.5 hour video) talks about the idea of abolishing the Fed and issuing debt free notes (new paper currency) to pay off the national debt. I have not watched the video, and I have never heard of the idea but it seems interesting…

A pork Orchard

“For more than 40 years now, Sepp Holzer, the agricultural rebel has been transforming his family farm in the Lungau district in the Austrian Alps into an eco-paradise of fishing ponds, ten thousands of fruit trees, shrubs, vines and highly productive vegetables and herbs. Here, at an altitude of 1500 meters (~5000 feet) in the “Siberia of Austria”, he has created a self-sustaining landscape in which he produces many varieties of the best quality fish, fruits, nuts, vegetables, mushrooms, pork, poultry and even citrus without irrigation, fertilizers, pesticides or weeding.

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