Unless you are in Greece, Zimbabwe or Somalia 2009 ended up being a pretty uneventful year on the doom front. The possibility of an unmitigated economic collapse at the opening of the year disappeared as central bankers and power brokers around the world closed ranks around failing institutions to prevent any more extensive damage in the short term. The long term effects of all of the propping-up of the finance world is not totally clear, but there are certain repercussions that seem clear even now.

How does the world look at the end of the year compared to my guesses at the beginning of the year? I posted a comment on someone else’s website (so that I couldn’t go back and edit it) about what I thought 2009 would be like – and I don’t think I did too bad.

My guess for unemployment was:

Lucky 10%

Unlucky 13-15%

I would say that we were very lucky this year. A lot of shoes that could have dropped did not, credit (which props up employment) contracted but not at the rate that it could have, banks temporarily stabilized themselves through the Fed and treasury bail out programs and the dollar did not fall to pieces in international markets. All of these things either directly or indirectly kept employment numbers propped up, but most importantly consumer confidence gained strength throughout the year, likely bolstered by the market’s robust recovery and all of the resulting news that the economic crisis was behind us. I don’t totally believe the hype about the recovery, but since I am not everyone, employment numbers stayed in “lucky” terrritory.

My guess for the stock market was:

S&P and Dow plus or minus 10% from January 1st levels.

S&P is up 19% from the beginning of the year

Dow is up about 16%

So, I missed by about an order of magnatude, but I don’t think I was much worse off than many others when it comes to what 2009 would bring.

My guess for oil was:

“I think it will dip below $30 off and on for the next few months but could finish the year much higher, depending on demand forecasts and stockpiles.”

As far as vague forecasts go, I don’t think that I did too bad on that one.

So, big fucking deal. 2009 is over, and it wasn’t very exciting here in America – no matter what Glenn Beck wants you to believe. Cheers to 2010 hopefully being a much more exciting and Doom-filled year.

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